Global average temperature forecasts from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, from an original by Michael Tippett of Columbia University. Each panel shows the forecast from one model, relative to the “pre-industrial” period—that is, the increase in global average temperature since 1850. The black line shows the observed global temperature, from the Hadley Center’s HADCRUT5 temperature record. The gray lines are forecasts starting in April, May, June, July, and August from previous years, starting in 2013. The most recent forecasts, from April, May, June, July, and August of 2023, are on the right-hand end, in colors. For most models, the forecasts extend out 12 months—for example, the forecast made in June 2014 goes out to May 2015. These forecasts have the same structure as our Niño-3.4 forecasts, but instead of predicting the average sea surface temperature in the Niño-3.4 region, they’re predicting the average temperature over the entire globe. For help visualizing the separate forecasts, take a look at this animation showing Niño-3.4 forecasts from 2015–16. Figure by climate.gov based on data from Michael Tippett, obtained from the IRI Data Library.