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Two kinds of correlation scores: gray dots show how well the NMME forecasts (light gray dot=individual models, dark gray=average) matched actual winter precipitation; diamonds show how well the observed precipitation matched the geographic pattern we'd expect from averaging past La Niña (blue) or El Niño (blue) winters. The overall linear pattern is similar for both: pattern matches get better (closer to 1, a perfect match) the stronger the La Niña or El Niño. This winter's forecast for a strong El Niño means the winter has a higher chance of matching—on average for the U.S.—the typical El Niño pattern. NOAA Climate.gov figure, based on analysis by Nat Johnson.