enso-outlooks-options-prices-average-effect-20240725.png

Showing the change in implied volatility (%) by calendar month as a response to the ENSO outlook. The range shown in purple is statistically significant because all values of the 95% confidence interval (from top whisker to bottom whisker) are less than zero. The other months have ranges that overlap into positive values and, therefore, positive or zero change cannot be ruled out. Credit: Climate.gov, adapted from original by Lemoine and Kapnick.