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File: precip-ENSO-rank-comparison-bar-chart.png

File name: precip-ENSO-rank-comparison-bar-chart.png
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Alternate Text: Bar chart showing the mismatch between this year's ENSO strength forecast and precipitation strength forecast are
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Bar chart showing the mismatch between this year's ENSO strength forecast and precipitation strength forecast are

Image caption

The strength of the NMME winter precipitation forecast over North America usually tracks the strength of the ENSO forecast, as measured by the traditional Niño-3.4 index, quite well. Four of the five strongest precipitation forecasts had a good-to-perfect match with forecast ENSO strength (only the forecast from the fall of 2011 had a so-so match). The forecast for this winter, however, which is the sixth strongest precipitation forecast in the 1991-2024 record, has the worst match – the strength of the forecast ENSO event only ranks 18th.