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File: ENSOblog_probabilities-graph_20241306_2000px.png

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Alternate Text: Bar chart of seasonal forecasts for El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions for the rest of 2024 and early 2025
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Bar chart of seasonal forecasts for El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions for the rest of 2024 and early 2025

Image caption

For each upcoming 3-month season, NOAA forecasts the chances of El Niño (red bars), La Niña (blue bars), or neutral conditions (gray bars) in the tropical Pacific. Neutral is overwhelmingly favored for the May-July period (labeled MJJ on the graph), but the chances for La Niña increase rapidly as soon as the June-August (JJA) period. By late summer (July-August-September, JAS), odds of La Niña are 65 percent. NOAA graph by Michelle L’Heureux.