New model enhances El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting

A figure from the new paper. Credit: doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07534-6

In a recent study published in Nature, researchers developed a new model to improve forecasting of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Improving the forecasting of ENSO can help better prepare for its global environmental and societal impacts. The extended nonlinear recharge oscillator (XRO) model integrates core ENSO dynamics and seasonal interactions with other global oceanic variables. The XRO model provided accurate ENSO forecasts up to 16–18 months in advance, outperforming traditional global climate models and matching the accuracy of the best AI forecast.

This research builds on decades of progress in ENSO modeling that aimed to overcome the limitations of current models that struggle with long-term predictions and biases.