Phenology Trends and Climate Change in Minnesota

Pamela Freeman, Project Eddie

In this module, students will practice answering a specific question about how climate change has affected the flowering date in American elm trees. After students learn to manipulate the elm data set, build graphs, and analyze the data with a regression, they can then practice on a species of their own interest. Students can then share their species' information with the class for a larger discussion about what types of species may be affected by climate change.

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Notes from our reviewers

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A pre-class reading is suggested: "Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin" (Bradley et al., 1999). The lesson is complex and the instructor may want to organize the materials in a student-friendly location (single PowerPoint slide). It is recommended that the teacher work through the activity before presenting it to students. Consider scaffolding the graphing. This resource has teaching tip content for teachers, which includes pre-homework and a slide-by-slide description for each slide in the powerpoints. The resource also has the dataset and handouts. This lesson uses the term "data manipulation" which is often used in science to mean data analysis and interpretation. The same term can mean falsifying data in the general public, so instructors may wish to either avoid this term or explain its meaning in this context.
Students will answer questions about how climate change has affected the flowering date in American elm trees. Students learn to manipulate data sets, build graphs, and analyze data with a regression. Digitally available data in spreadsheet form can be manipulated by students; the source of the data is the Minnesota Phenology Network and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. The activity is rigorous and requires student attention and dedication. Comments from expert scientist: This resource scaffolds data science skills and scientific thinking skills, such as hypothetical-deductive reasoning, causative thinking, and identifying patterns. It also utilizes real data sets to explore a tangible and interesting scientific issue. The MN Phenological data set may not be currently maintained. The linked site still provides the 2018 data set, which is now five years old. Are the observations still being made, and if so will these data be accessible in the future? This resource is well explained to the instructor and the students.
The learning outcome is clearly stated and addressed in the activity; the focus is on engaging in data analysis and understanding impacts of climate change on a species. The lesson includes a list of resources (PowerPoint presentation, article, worksheet, website) and a lesson outline for an instructor to follow. Students should be somewhat familiar with Excel or Google Sheets and should be strong readers. Students would benefit from some previous experience with graphing in Excel. The data analysis is scaffolded in the activity but not the graphing. The teacher's guide is readily available and easy to use. Regression analysis may be better suited for upper level students. Lower level college students may need additional support to complete the regression and make sense of the results.