Understanding Climate Modeling

National Center for Science Education

This lesson plan is the second in a series of 6 modules on climate change. This lesson plan defines common vocabulary such as model, trend, projection, prediction, weather, and climate. Students will practice scientific skills like graphing, interpreting graphs, and evaluating models to understand how climate data and models are created, interpreted, and refined. The lessons guide students through the analysis of real-world climate data to understand how scientists generate models and make projections. Students will understand how climate modeling has evolved over time and that different models have varying degrees of accuracy.

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Notes from our reviewers

The CLEAN collection is hand-picked and rigorously reviewed for scientific accuracy and classroom effectiveness. Read what our review team had to say about this resource below or learn more about how CLEAN reviews teaching materials.

Depending on the class and time available, it may be helpful for teachers to look through activities and choose a few rather than teach this entire unit. Certain activities, such as the "Evolution of climate modeling" can be omitted or truncated for the sake of time without losing any conceptual material. Consider using the videos and resources from this section only if you are short on time. Different classes will need different levels of support when it comes to understanding the concepts and tools presented.
This unit provides a scientifically accurate and well-designed introduction to climate modeling. The video game analogy may not be analogous to the evolution of climate modeling, but it will help students to understand how far technology has advanced. Teachers may want to spend some time discussing the difference between climate modeling and video game design so that students understand that while video games are a good analogy, climate modeling involves different tools. All related resources are from reputable sources like NOAA and NASA, and all primary resources are clearly cited at the conclusion of the module. The objectives of this lesson are primarily conceptual in nature and do not focus explicitly on data analysis or mathematical modeling. Passed initial science review - expert science review pending.
This lesson plan is constructed to meet several NGSS core ideas and includes both teacher and student goals that are repeatedly addressed throughout the modules. Students will use a mix of class discussion, videos, observation, primary resources, graphing and interpreting graphs. This variety may appeal to a variety of students learning styles. Most activities are discussion-based and no formal rubric is provided. Students will need to have a foundational understanding of climate change, the carbon and water cycle to fully engage in the lesson material. This lesson uses analogies and real-world examples to explain how models are refined over time depending on the amount and quality of data and technology available. These examples are highly accessible to a classroom audience.
A teacher account must be created to access lesson materials. All associated resource materials are accessible through Google Drive, and the lesson plan includes embedded hyperlinks for easy access to related content. This resource is technically sound but involves multiple tools and resources. Teachers will need to spend some time working through everything beforehand to ensure they're ready to offer the lessons to students.