So in other words, El Nino is and will always be an unpredictable event as it has always been. If you cast your model predictions wide enough you can say you weren't wrong. That's very coy because that way you will never be wrong. The fact is you weren't right - so blame yourselves and not the models. If you can't predict an El Nino a month away, then you can't predict climate change in the future as you claim to be able to do. So please stop alarming the average person about what you think you might know what will happen. My models on the NOAA's success rate on that one aren't complimentary - but the spread is wide enough that I'm sure you will find a usable excuse. Dr, Graham McMillan Victoria BC. BSc Hons Oceanography 1988 UBC.