That's a very interesting point that you assume all of the models are wrong, and that you try to figure out why and how they are wrong.  As well, it sounds like deciding on what the weather for the next few days is most likely to be is something of a judgment call that relies on a combination of models and observations.  And, I imagine that the more experience and education you have with it, the better your judgment is. 

Is all of this correct (more or less)? 

Thanks for taking the time to answer my question and to read my posts!