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Well, well, well… what have we here? Favorable conditions for El Niño to develop? The June ENSO forecast estimates a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the late summer or early autumn, and an approximately 65% chance of El Niño conditions in the winter, so forecasters have instituted an El Niño Watch. Who’s on first Before we get into the potential for El Niño, let’s talk about right now. We are in neutral, and forecasters expect that ENSO-neutral conditions will play on through the summer. The surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean is close to the long-term average in most areas, including the Niño3.4 region (our primary monitoring region for ENSO), which was smack-dab…   Read article

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Tell someone you forecast for a living and they often think of their favorite weather broadcaster. “Are you on TV?” is the second question asked after “Oh, great! Can you tell me what I should bring/wear tomorrow?” After an awkward pause, I tell them I don’t forecast the daily weather, instead, I forecast the climate (the awkward pause explains why I prefer blogging over TV).  So, what exactly do you do?  First, confession time: my expertise is in forecasting ENSO, but luckily, my colleagues at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are the world-class forecasters who provide climate outlooks. If you’re a regular reader of the ENSO blog, then you have already…   Read article

The winter average contiguous U.S. temperature was 1.8°F above average, ranking among the warmest third of the record since 1895. In February record-setting precipitation was observed across the mid- and lower-Mississippi Valley, the Midwest and Northern Rockies. During April, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 48.9°F, 2.2°F below the 20th century average, making it the 13th coldest April on record and the coldest since 1997. These are some recent statistics provided by NOAA’s climate monitoring program at the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and are part of the hundreds of climate reports that NCEI has produced in recent decades. Many businesse…   Read article

First off, happy blogiversary to our readers and the ENSO blog team! Hard to believe my first post was four years ago this month. Who would have thought we would still have so much to say about ENSO and the world of climate forecasting? If you’re new to us, or want to revisit old favorites, be sure to check out the index page our amazing editor put together. Sayonara, sweetheart Onward! Our next order of business is to bid adieu to La Niña, as the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific returned to neutral conditions in April—that is, within 0.5°C of the long-term average.   The temperature of the water below the surface remained above-average, as the large area …   Read article