ENSO Blog

What’s happening in the exciting world of ENSO prediction? I’ll tell you! While neutral conditions reign right now, we’re still expecting El Niño conditions to arrive later this fall (50-55% chance). By winter, the chance of El Niño conditions increases to about 65-70%. The now Things are definitely looking pretty neutral right now in the tropical Pacific. The most recent weekly temperature in the Niño3.4 region, our primary index for monitoring the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), was 0.3°C above the long-term average. Most of the equatorial Pacific surface water temperatures are slightly above average, while some areas of slightly cooler-than-average sea surface waters have recen…   Read article

This is a guest post by Prof. Benjamin Kirtman, at the University of Miami, who is the Director of the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) and of the Center for Computational Science Climate and Environmental Hazards Program. His research focuses on understanding climate predictability from days to decades using a suite of climate models. Also, he has played a key leadership role in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) projects.  A Flooded Future As residents of South Florida, we are confronted with the profound challenge of sea level rise due to our warming climate…   Read article

By nearly all measurements, the tropical Pacific is comfortably gliding along in ENSO-neutral conditions, and forecasters expect that will continue through the rest of the summer. The chance that our old buddy El Niño will be around during the fall is about 60%, rising to 70% by winter, and the El Niño Watch is continued this month. The price is right Let’s get started with four contestants from the audience. If you’re a Pacific Ocean ENSO indicator, come on down! The latest weekly Niño3.4 index was just 0.1°C above the long-term average. This is actually a little bit lower than the previous few weeks, but it doesn’t mean that El Niño is less likely. ENSO is a seasonal phenomenon, mean…   Read article

This is a guest post by Prof. Jason C. Furtado (@wxjay) of the University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology. His research group focuses on large-scale climate dynamics and applying that knowledge to subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting, testing and evaluating operational and climate models, and future climate change.   In case you haven’t heard, there is now a 70% chance of an El Niño this winter. Having a confident prediction of El Niño this far ahead is quite a feat for the seasonal forecasting community. One reason ENSO is predictable six to nine months ahead of time is the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) (1) and the related Pacific Meridional Mode (2). But, these precursors ar…   Read article

The chance that El Niño conditions will be in place across the tropical Pacific by the fall is about 65%, and close to 70% by the winter, continuing the El Niño Watch from last month. Here in the U.S., with sultry weather from coast to coast, it’s hard to think about winter right now…but that’s our job! After a trip through the tropical Pacific, we’ll get into what El Niño could mean for global weather and climate this winter. A splash in the pool The tropical Pacific is still well within neutral limits. The temperature of the ocean surface in the Niño3.4 region has edged above average, with June 2018 coming in about 0.11 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, based on our best-q…   Read article