Blogs

Last November, I wrote a post discussing the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for winter (December 2014 – February 2015).  Since we’re now into March, it seems appropriate for me to look back and see how they did.  In that post, I discussed the probabilistic nature of the outlook, and what the favored categories (above-, near-, and below-average) for winter temperature and precipitation were judged to be. As a reminder, and if you haven’t memorized that post, the outlooks favored above-average temperatures in Alaska, much of the West, and also in northern New England, and below-average temperatures in the south-central and southeastern par…   Read article

This is a guest post by Dennis L. Hartmann, who is a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle.  He literally wrote a textbook that was the foundation for our climate training (webpage and CV), so we’re pretty enthused he’s guest blogging with us—to put it mildly. Still, the Climate.gov managing editor asks us to remind our readers that all blog posts convey the opinions and ideas of individual bloggers, not NOAA.This post offers one expert’s view on a question that many scientists are exploring and debating. So far this winter it has been warm and dry in the West and cold and snowy in the East.  As I write from Seattle, it is…   Read article

Over the last several months, we’ve seen warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, including the Niño3.4 region, which we track as one indicator of El Niño. The seasonal Niño3.4 Index has been at or above 0.5°C since September, and the most recent weekly Niño3.4 index was +0.6°C. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled phenomenon, though, so we also monitor the atmosphere for signs that it is responding to those positive SST anomalies. For the last few months, we’ve been seeing some suggestions of borderline atmospheric El Niño conditions, but until this month we were below that borderline. This month, we’ve finally crept above it, and thus …   Read article

In my first installment about seasonal verification, I showed how using our eyes to verify seasonal forecasts is easy, but can be misleading—so it is often better to use “metrics” to grade our forecasts and see how well they did.  Part 2 looked more closely at one such way to grade our forecasts, called the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). The HSS breaks down the forecast into grid boxes spanning the United States, and then for each grid box showing the forecasted category (above-normal, near-normal, below-normal) with the highest probability, we check how often the forecast was the same as reality.   As a refresher, please check out the first figure in my last post. If movie trilogies…   Read article

Believe it or not, we ENSO forecasters follow what is being written on various news sites, blogs, and social media.  Some of us have twitter accounts: @ejbecker and @TDiLiberto. And don’t forget to follow @NOAAClimate for updates on our latest posts. You inspire us! Many of the topics in our blog come from your questions or ideas you provide. You lead us to think a little harder about the questions we’d like to investigate. And, as of late, we have noticed that there has been some chatter about how the models were wrong about their prediction of El Niño during 2014. Is this true? The answer may surprise you.  In the figure below are model predictions for ENSO created during Janu…   Read article