The tropical Pacific Ocean sloshes around like water in your bathtub. These waves are as important as the vortex of water that spirals down the drain.
Observing & Predicting
Blogger Tom Di Liberto explains the math behind some of the tests that seasonal forecasters use to check forecast skill, and then shows how skillful the past decade's winter forecasts have been.
Several times a year the MJO contributes to various extreme events in the United States, including Arctic air outbreaks during winter across the central and eastern portions of the country.
A first look at how we evaluate seasonal forecasts. How well do our eyes do?
If we look only at rainfall changes, and not ocean temperatures, can we get a clearer picture of how climate change will influence ENSO? Guest blogger Mat Collins from University of Exeter explains what recent studies have to say.
An El Niño means lots of rain for California, correct? Well, some of the time, but not always.
After some very cold weather this month, folks are likely wondering if the early chill is a harbinger of things to come this winter. "Not necessarily," explains Mike Halpert of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in this week's ENSO blog post.
How to interpret climate outlooks and make $$$$ millions.* **OK, maybe an overstatement, but you'll at least understand probabilistic forecasts better.
What's behind the drop in probabilities this month? And why might forecasting this event be particularly tricky?
How El Niño is like different flavors of ice cream. Seriously.