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The strong El Niño of 2015/16 is on the decline, and the CPC/IRI forecast says it’s likely that conditions will transition to neutral by early summer, with about a 50% chance of La Niña by the fall. In this post, we’ll take a look back at this past winter and forward to what may happen next.
Current events
El Niño has begun to weaken, with sea surface temperature anomalies across most of the equatorial Pacific decreasing over the past month. The large amount of warmer-than-average waters below the surface of the tropical Pacific (the “heat content”) also decreased sharply, despite getting a small boost in January. The heat content is the lowest it’s been in over a year, and since the s…
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Is El Niño missing? What happened to the rainfall I was promised? What is going on? Some quick answers for those who don't want to read it all (but then you’ll miss the graphical awesomeness I coded up with an assist from climate.gov staff. So read to the end. Please.):
I. No. It’s still here. Based on measurements of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean, this El Niño is the biggest event we’ve seen in almost twenty years.
II. NOAA CPC climate forecasters don’t promise precipitation. For some regions of the U.S., we provide seasonal outlooks for an increased chance of precipitation over a span of a 3-month (seasonal) average.
III. I rea…
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Most people in the East who remember historical snowstorms consider the March 1993 “Storm of the Century” to be the biggest snowstorm to ever affect that part of the country. It’s no wonder: 270 people were killed in the U.S., damages were in the neighborhood of $5.5 billion, every major airport on the east coast was shut down, and most interstates north of Atlanta were closed.
Using our Regional Snowfall Index (RSI), the March 12-15, 1993, event had a raw score of 22.12, making it a Category 5 storm. Yet when we look at the ranking of all historical Northeast snowstorms, the “Storm of the Century” only finishes in second place. No way! How can that be?
Trying to be objective about…
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Despite getting a little boost from some strong winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean in January, the warmer-than-average ocean temperatures that drive El Niño have likely peaked. Now that we’re looking out from the other side of the mountain, let’s answer some questions.
So is this the strongest El Niño on record, or what?
This is definitely one of the strongest three going back to 1950. It’s hard to say definitively what single El Niño is the strongest, because there are a lot of different ways to measure strength.
The Oceanic Niño Index, the three-month-average sea surface temperature departure from the long-term normal in one region of the Pacific Ocean, is the primary n…
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